Aug 072012
 

When utilised properly, an insightful analysis of statistics can often provide fantasy managers with a decisive edge over their rivals in mini-leagues.  With this in mind, here at FFC we have decided to bring you two statistical articles ahead of gameweek 1. We start with a look back at the statistics from the 2011/12 season.

We actually released our review of the statistics from the 2011/12 season at the end of last season.  We have decided to re-release it again now as it contains a vast amount of useful statistical data which we feel could help spark ideas for your opening gameweek 1 team this year.

We hope you find it useful in giving you that little edge over your rivals.  Please find the 2011/12 season review below.  Enjoy….

The 2011/12 Season – Statistical Wrap Up

The 2011/2012 season of the English Premier League was arguably the most exciting and unpredictable season since the league’s inception 20 years ago. After 38 action packed gameweeks, we couldn’t let the end of the season go by without giving you one final dose of statistical analysis to enjoy!

We start by giving you an insight into the performance of different clubs from a fantasy football point of view, which we do by examining the difference between the Premier League table and the FPL table. After delving a bit deeper into the individual club rankings of the FPL teams, we conclude our analysis by taking a brief look at what this season’s stats suggest is the best formation for a FPL fantasy football team.

Premier League Table Vs FPL Table

Before we analyse the difference between the two tables, lets first of all take a look at both of them. You can find the final Premier League table and the final FPL table below.

Premier League Table

FPL Table

Analysis
  • Manchester United finished top of the FPL table with 2,169 points, which was 25 more than their cross city rivals Manchester City.
  • The top 5 point scoring clubs in the FPL also finished in the top 5 in the Premier League, with the exception of Chelsea who finished 1 point behind Newcastle.
  • Swansea and Sunderland were the only clubs from the bottom half of the Premier League table to finish in the top half of the FPL table.
  • Stoke and Aston Villa were the only clubs whose position in the Premier League and FPL table was the same.
  • The clubs that were relegated from the Premier League, namely, Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves were the 3 lowest point scoring clubs in the FPL.
  • The average FPL points scored by a club were approximately 1,551.
  • The top point scorers consisted of 9 forwards, 8 midfielders, 3 goalkeepers and 0 defenders.
  • On average, the top point scorer for a club amassed approximately 162 points, which was roughly 10.50% of that club’s total score.

*Note: Information pertaining to the points scored by Bobby Zamora while he was at Fulham was not available. Therefore, his entire score was attributed to his current club QPR. If Zamora’s figures were to be excluded, QPR’s leading point scorer would be their goalkeeper Paddy Kenny with 102 points.

FPL Club Rankings

In order to take a closer look at the FPL table, the total points scored by each club were divided amongst their goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and forwards. This information has been presented in the tables given below.

Detailed FPL Club Rankings

The ‘FPL Club Rankings’ table from above has been summarized into the below table.

Summary FPL Club Rankings

Analysis
  • Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham and Arsenal finished in the top 10 in each of the 4 categories.
  • Stoke, Blackburn, Wolves and Bolton finished outside the top 10 in each of the 4 categories. With the exception of Stoke, the remaining clubs were relegated.
  • Newcastle, Chelsea, Swansea and Everton finished in the top 10 in 3 of the 4 categories. Swansea is the only club from this list to finish in the bottom half of the Premier League table.
  • Liverpool finished in the top 10 in only 1 of the 4 categories (defense).
  • Blackburn was the only club to finish bottom in 2 categories (goalkeepers and defense).
  • Manchester United topped every category, with the exception of defense, in which they finished 2nd behind Manchester City.
  • Sunderland’s midfield scored the 2nd highest number of points (776). Approximately 50% of these points were scored by the trio of Sessegnon, Larsson and McClean. This certainly seems like an astonishing feat for a club that finished 13th in the Premier League table.
  • Michel Vorm’s heroic displays in goal throughout the season ensured that Swansea finished 3rd in the goalkeeper rankings.
  • Although Chelsea’s defenders scored the 3rd highest number of points, their goalkeepers didn’t do as well as many expected. A score of 137 points or 3.61 points per game (PPG) was good enough for 12th place in the goalkeeper rankings.
  • Despite having Clint Dempsey (the highest point scoring midfielder in this season’s FPL competition) in their ranks, Fulham’s midfield managed 565 points at a PPG figure of 14.87. This may seem like an impressive number when viewed independently, but in relative terms, a score of 565 resulted in The Cottager’s occupying 14th place in the midfield rankings.
  • Arsenal’s lack of other goal scoring forwards meant that Robin Van Persie’s 30 goals, 13 assists and 45 bonus points were not enough to overhaul the points tally of the clubs that finished above them, namely, Manchester United, Manchester City, QPR and Newcastle. As a result, Arsenal occupy 5th place in the forwards rankings.

** Note: Bobby Zamora’s total score of 119 was attributed to QPR. Therefore, points earned by the QPR forwards are inflated.

What Is The Best Fantasy Formation?

We all like to debate what the best formation is in fantasy football, so we have decided to take a look at the stats from the 2011/2012 season and see what they can tell us. The best place to look is the following table, which provides a points distribution summary for the 2011/2012 FPL season:

Most FPL veterans prefer to field 3 defenders in their starting lineups. That begs the question, should they jam the midfield with 5 players and play a 3-5-2 formation or throw on an extra forward and adopt a 3-4-3 formation?

In the 2011/2012 edition of the FPL, approximately 41% of the total points were scored by midfielders. This may lead many to believe that playing a 3-5-2 formation is the way to go. However, a closer look at the average points scored per 90 minutes illustrates that this figure was 1.16 points or approximately 31% higher for forwards relative to midfielders. In other words, forwards tend to score more points for every 90 minutes they spend on the pitch as compared to midfielders. Therefore, the 3-4-3 formation is likely to be the more productive than the 3-5-2 formation over the course of the season.

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This article was written by Archivist

  193 Responses to “Gameweek 1 – Using Stats To Gain An Edge”

  1. Tottenham have rejected a final offer from Real Madrid of €30million for Luka Modric.

  2. Kop, just a quick reminder before the start of the season. Nani is crap!

  3. The Man U – Barca game’s gone to pens lads!

  4. Pinto saves Young’s pen.

  5. young & nani miss penos in shootout haha

  6. Do united have anymore friendlies left?

  7. Naismith hattrick today, the boy can play. Him and Jela will have an instant connection upfront. Everton are a team to watch at the start of the season with there fixtures.

    IMO Howard, Baines, Pienaar, Naismith and Jela – 2 should be in your teams.

  8. HAHAHA!!! Just found out this Man U – Barca match was called the ‘Super Match’!!! So ridiculous and pointless. Just like the ‘Mega Bowl’ in Semi-Pro!

  9. 2 assists for Pienaar tonight.

  10. Can’t login to FPL, anyone else having trouble?

  11. your thoughts please:

    jaaskelainen/begovic

    kaboul – lescott/clichy – pearce(red) – cole – gorkass

    bale – park – noble – pienaar – sessegnon

    pogrebnyak – aguero – torres

    I am planning on changing torres for rooney after 1st week and on 2nd I ll bring in vaz te of west ham for the pog. i have 2.5 left in bank.

    • Pearce will have to beat Nicky Shorey to LB to make him a good pick. I hope he will, but it’s undetermined, and you already have Gorkss. Reading like their clean sheets, but find a replacement for Pearce and keep him in the watch list instead.

      I’ve never liked owning Tottenham defenders (Gallas excepted; he was a bargain last season), and they may have appealing matchups, but 5.5m goes a long way at the back. I’m holding off on Spurs until AVB convinces me.

      Clichy is also on shakey ground. Rotation risk.

      Sessegnon is interesting and I want to own him but he was making noise about leaving and whenever MON talks about him, it’s “I hope we can keep him here”… watch the transfer news, who knows.

      Noble/Pienaar — precious rare value in mid

      attackers look great, but rooney’s value will be diminished if RVP is purchased

      • Re “Pearce will have to beat Nicky Shorey to LB to make him a good pick.”

        Pearce is the Captain and will play at RB me thinks. It’s Shorey and Harte that will be fighting out the LB spot

      • I keep being confused abt my team. I wanted to keep Williams of Swansea but I don’t really know how they have been doing in pre-season so went for Kabul as he was descent(I think) & gives steal threat. I picked Pearce as he has played all but 1 game in champion ship. I m relatively new here so will surely seeking for more help. Kop, mutley, & all other veterans will be kept busy by this rookie this season:)

        • @ vanilla I hope sess stays, he along with Sinclair, dempsy, bale were my permanent midfielders last season. I never wanted to pick any def from spurs but the fixtures are relatively easy so thought I ll give it a shot. Never liked clichy but he is the cheapest option from city along with rechards so idk. I rvp comes to united I will be too happy to worry abt my fpl lol

  12. Please RMT if you have an opinion.
    I’m trying to start out with a couple differentiators. Nothing wild, I hope.

    Federici (Krul)
    Lescott, Shawcross, Cuellar, (Gorkss, Fox)
    Silva, Nolan, BenArfa, Mata, Pienaar
    Cisse, Torres (Holt)

    • Gorkss is in (Cuellar is benched)

    • Nice midfield there. You can’t get any United cover in there? Jones in your defence?

      I’m personally waiting to see how newcastle fair before jumping back on the cisse bandwagon (presuming you have cisse of newcastle and not QPR). Have you considered sswapping for BA, and upgrading Holt?

  13. Hi Guys,need some advise please..please rate my team.
    Having a lil doubts on phil jones if hes a starter others and advise who shall i replace if needed.
    Thanks.

    -hart-
    -phil jones – koscielny – anton ferdinand-
    -noble – yaya – hazard – dembele
    - rooney – aguero – podolski

    bench : cerny – barnett-britton – clyne