Every now and again we make an early transfer move, and we normally do this when we suspect a player’s price is likely to either rise or fall during the course of the week. Our motivation to move early this week is once again price related, and hence we have made our transfer move now so as to avoid getting caught out by what feels like an inevitable price rise for our chosen transfer target.
What have we done?
We have decided to sell Rooney of Man United, and replace him with Aguero of Man City.
Why have we done it?
Anyone who watched the Norwich v Man City game on Saturday will know exactly why we have made this transfer! Aguero looked, and in fact was, sensational.
That being said, this was not a ‘slam dunk’ transfer decision. As you all know, gameweek 36 offers some extremely tempting Double Gameweek fixtures, and the logical step this week would be to transfer in a player that features in the Double Gameweek. Up until the Man City game today, that was in fact our plan.
So why have we changed our plans? Well, let us try and explain…
We have been playing fantasy football for a number of years now, and most of that time we have been pretty successful at it. Over the years we have learnt a few general principals, which if followed correctly normally pay off. Today’s decision revolves around two of those principals:
(1) Follow the Form & Fixtures
‘Form & Fixtures’ are a fantasy manager’s best friend. Typically, if you buy a player in great form, who also has an attractive run of fixtures ahead of him, then more often than not the move tends to pay off. A recent example of this rule in action would be Papiss Cisse of Newcastle.
So does Aguero meet this criteria? Well, we feel that he does! Aguero is in blistering form (4 goals in his last 2 matches), and in gameweek 35 he comes up against a struggling Wolves side. As far as we are concerned, that is a major tick in the ‘Form and Fixtures’ box.
(2) Don’t over-chase a Double Gameweek
Whilst Double Gameweeks are hugely tempting, running at them too hard can be counter-productive. A recent example would be Drenthe ahead of Everton’s two Double Gameweeks in gameweeks 20 and 28. Many fantasy managers incurred a 4 point hit to get Drenthe into their teams, and in return he scored a total of 4 fantasy points over the 4 games.
So how does the Aguero transfer fit in here? Well, we have 2 free transfers this week. If we use the 2nd free transfer to get in a Double Gameweek player, then by the time we get into gameweek 36 we should be able to field 6 Double Gameweek players. That is a pretty good result, and we will have achieved it without over chasing the Double Gameweek. By that we mean we will not have let the Double Gameweek compromise other transfer moves that we wanted to make such as the Aguero move this week.
So, as you can see, we feel that the Aguero move satisfies both of these key fantasy football principals. As a result, we have decided to go for it!
Are we pleased with the move?
If we were to be completely honest with you (as we always are), we are already salivating about the thought of Aguero wearing our captain’s armband for the gameweek 35 clash with Wolves. So yes, we are pleased with the move.
However, we do still have a few nagging doubts at the back of our mind. For example, should we have bought Tevez instead? Or how about this one – will Mancini do what he does best, and throw a spanner in the works by rotating his team and benching Aguero next week?
Answering the Tevez doubt is fairly easy. Whilst Tevez may do well next week, he is more expensive than Aguero, and the extra cash it would cost to buy him would mean we would not be able to afford the transfer move we have up our sleeve for gameweek 36. Hence he is not really a viable option. Our other nagging doubt, about player rotation, does not even bear thinking about!
Leaving these doubts to one side, we are really happy with the move. Yes it is a shame to see Rooney leave our squad, but with Man City back amongst the goals, and facing Wolves next week, it is simply too tempting an opportunity to let it slip through our fingers…
As mentioned, we still have a second free transfer to make this week. We would advise you to keep an eye on the site, as we are highly likely to make our next transfer move on Sunday….